d.ej your job to dedicate yourself to cycling. And without being a runner. Alexandre Rodrigo He considers himself “a big fan of this sport and dice since I was little”. On Twitter you can follow him on his @bigdata_cycling. There he tells the races from a more analytical point of view.
“I’ve always liked cycling and its history. But, as I worked in market research and liked data, I realized that there was a world behind it that I didn’t know. I did a master’s degree in sports Big Data where there was a lot of talk about football, basketball or NFL There wasn’t much talk about cycling, just what we know as procyclingstats or firstcycling. There you can see the UCI points or the time one put into the other, but not much else. There is a certain secrecy because the teams don’t want to show the watts their runners move. It may be normal not to give clues to rivals, but I felt that there was a lack of data to know more about the race. A ranking won’t teach you why Lazkano fought Laporte in Through Flanders, for example. I thought we could go further”, says the specialist visiting the BRAND.
Therefore, Rodrigo deepened the subject. “I worked in Market Research and there came a time when I saw it clearly. In the master’s degree they made me see the movie money ball, where a baseball team uses statistics to win games. That’s when I realized that the world was crazy and I got into this idea a year ago, in the previous Holy Week. I wanted to continue advancing this topic“Says someone whose main idea is to be able to work with teams in the future “by joining the variables of cyclists, with physiological data and creating a statistic that speaks 360, in full, of all this”.
At the public level, Rodrigo He found “no more stats than what appears on the stats websites. There are some races like the Tour that put a ‘tracker’ on to see the position of each rider. It’s all very crowded so you have to create it yourself. ” “, says someone whose day to day involves “watching the race live, taking notes and then, when they are finished, I analyze all the actions of each runner”.
for example, yes pogacar It attacks with 60 km to go, who escaped… and then cleans and refines all these variables. “I put machine learning so that he learns the machine and with that I am learning some variables that determine the chances of each one to win”adds a journalist who started studying audiovisual journalism and later graduated in big data and programming.
With a refined working model
He created a panel with all the data in a free Microsoft program and from there “you can play interactively with any variable”. For example, it allows you to compare the strengths of each runner to see if pogacar is more explosive than Van Aert or Van der Poel, but you can also see how Wout, if he opens a gap, it is impossible to close because he is the one with the greatest capacity to increase the advantage because he is the one who can withstand the effort the most”. The data, by the way, was collected since 2021. And he survives on the money he’s saved over the years working the markets.
Rodrigo reveals in this video the surprising key to Pogacar’s defeat in the last Tour.
with a clear goal
“I would like to apply this idea within a team, for which I work. It helps to do scouting and to catch good youngsters. Analyzing the races, seeing the state of form… but it is a tool that in the future can also be used for the general public, for journalists…”, he points out with satisfaction. Rodrigo wants to take cycling, through numbers and analysis, to another level.
1 Predictions of the favorites to win Pars – Roubaix
2 Graphs of Winning Attacks in 2022-2023
3 It’s a graph that explains how runners’ chances of winning increase if they enter the initial cut or break. And where Cortina must go if she wants to fight for something.
Your vision of the Roubaix
“In the first graph you can see the 10 favorites that have the most chances of winning in robix. In between Van der Poel, Van Aert and Laporte are the favorites, although VdP has some advantage over Jumbo. Van Aert received an asterisk because this week he commented on the pain he feels. Then there is Laporte. Then there are other great runners one notch below that should also be there. Ganna is to be reckoned with as he has had a great year and has even performed in terrain that is not his own. On another rung are De Lie and Asgreen“he points.
And it spreads. “De Lie is unknown because he’s so young, but with his racing style and his quality he could be there. Asgreen you also have options. Among the Spaniards I pointed Cortina as the first Spaniard, but he is the 22nd favourite. On the other hand, I emphasize that taking a break or an initial break can be fundamental, as the vast majority reaches the finish line with chances of victory. If you don’t have the explosive ability to make winning attacks and don’t want to play tat with those who can, you should go into this opening cut. Who will benefit most from this are Kung or Ganna. If the two greyhounds enter this interval, they have a 20% more chance of winning”, confirms the analyst about this Sunday’s race.