Volatility dominates the markets. Any delicate news, mainly about the banking sector, can cause bumps in the main indices. Just yesterday the Ibex started to fall a slight 0.2%, and only an hour and a half later it had already plummeted 4%. Today’s agenda, as if that were not enough, included important macro data such as american inflation. Contrary to what is usual in recent times, the data has been in line with what was expected. The CPI moderated in February to 6% from 6.4% in January. The figures confirmed a more moderate ‘disinflation’ in the underlying index, moving from 5.5% to 5.4%.
But today macro data can lose prominence even for the Federal Reserve. The crisis started by the Silicon Valley Bank may achieve what the multiple recession warnings could not, a halt to interest rate hikes in the United States at its meeting next week. That’s at least what companies like Goldman Sachs believe, considering that a further hike in rates, and even more than the other 50 basis points expected until the SVB crisis, would eclipse the effects of its emergency funding plan for banks. and could suffocate other distressed financial institutions.
Relief in the form of a possible brake or stop on rates served to minimize Wall Street’s declines yesterday. This morning, in Asia, the effects of the crisis reached Japan. He nikkei He asked for 2.19%, his biggest setback so far this year. References, however, acquire a much more favorable bias from Wall Street. Today’s session activates the recovery of its main indices, and the deceleration of the CPI numbers reinforces the hopes of greater containment in the Fed’s interest rate hikes.
European equities replicated the bullish turn taken by Wall Street today. O spanish stock market managed to contain the downward pressures that had practically dropped the Ibex by 5% in the previous two days. Yesterday’s correction, the biggest in nine months, ended up dropping the 9,000-point barrier yesterday. In today’s session, the Spanish selective index added 2.23% to 9,159 points and broke a sequence of three sessions of declines.
The recovery gained strength among banks, after two sessions in which the Spanish sector lost an average of 11%. entities like sabadell It is CaixaBank They ended two fateful days up 4.50% and 4.09% respectively. BBVA increased by 3.42% and Santander, 3.02%. Some international companies, such as Citi and Morgan Stanley, have helped lift the industry’s spirits with their bets on Spanish banks.
The mini-truce in banks also coincided with greater firmness in other cyclical sectors such as tourism stocks. Melia led the selective advances with a rise of 4.65%. amadeus increased by 3.21% and Aena, 3.13%. Among the Socimis, Colonial there was an increase of 2.51% and Marlineof 2.43%.
Investors’ attention was also focused on inditex. The textile giant, which presents results tomorrow, appreciated 1.85% and exceeds 29 euros per share.
The rest of european stocks also leaned towards purchases and recovered part of yesterday’s setback. Amidst a readjustment of interest rate hike expectations on the other side of the Atlantic, investors also tend to moderate their forecasts for the new interest rate hikes approved next Thursday by the European Central Bank. In all, the German Dax added up to 1.83%; the French Cac, 1.86%; the Italian Mib, 2.36% and the British Ftse, 1.17%.
O banks The Europeans stopped the 11% drop on average recorded in the three previous sessions, but had to deal with the uncertainty generated by one of the weakest links in the chain, Swiss credit. The Swiss bank closed with cuts of 0.7% after acknowledging in its 2022 annual report that it detected a “material weakness” in the internal control of its financial information. Outside the financial sector, the still small amount of business results has produced references that are not very encouraging for the prices of groups such as volkswagen (-1.6%) and Fraport (-0.5%). In the chapter on increases, the French figure appears today casino (+7.3%) after launching a divestment in Brazilian retailer Assai.
Variable income has succumbed in recent days to fears of a financial crisis. On the other hand, he saw how one of the greatest latent pressures of recent months, those derived from the increase in debt interest, dissipated significantly. The possible suspension of the Fed’s rate hikes accelerated declines in US 10-year bond yields. Today, investors undo debt positions to return to equities and the yield on the US bond, which evolves in the opposite direction to the price, rises above 3.60%. Yield hikes could extend to Europe, with two days to go before the ECB meeting. Yields on the German bund are above 2.40%, although still far from the 2.70% of just a few sessions ago, and the Spanish bond is above 3.50%.
The outbreak of the US banking crisis initially put all the focus on the Fed and its possible halt in interest rate hikes. The stock market’s chastisement of European banks extended to the ECB’s forecasts of far less aggressive rate hikes than expected. He dollar break your falls and euro exchanges for $1.07. O lb The UK is trading flat at $1.21.
Macro fears accentuate the decline in the price of a barrel of Petroleum of Brent, a reference in Europe. Its price drops today to 79 dollars and has reached the lowest levels since the beginning of January. In the US, the barrel of the West Texas type fell to 73 dollars, the lowest price since December.
The wave of divestments in recent days has once again confirmed its attractiveness as a haven for gold. The precious metal accelerated its rally above $1,900 an ounce yesterday. In today’s session, the threat of the dollar’s reaction puts a brake on its rise, and gold is limited to consolidating the level of 1,900. Highs are reactivated in the cryptocurrency market, with the bitcoins shot to the $26,000 border as it waited to confirm a pause in rate hikes.